The number of people infected with the new coronavirus keeps growing, said Kip Harkness, San Jose deputy city manager, during Tuesday’s City Council meeting, which was made available online.
At the time of the meeting, there were 375 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Santa Clara County, but the analysis by the San Jose City Council indicates the number of unreported cases could be 25 times higher.
“We are using data modeling to understand the spread and shape of the COVID-19 epidemic in Santa Clara County,” Harkness said. “Our estimate is then there are between 9,000 and 19,000 actual cases in Santa Clara County right now.”
However the amount of test supplies available to San Jose residents is not enough to flatten the curve of rising cases.
Harkness said the data collected shows how the community needs to get serious fighting the coronavirus by practicing social distancing and following the statewide shelter-in-place order.
“This is not a crystal ball predicting the future and again the actions we take very much influence this data,”
Harkness said.
He said if people don’t follow the shelter-in-place order, there are three possible outcomes: the curve will stay the same, continue to grow or decrease a small amount – with the last scenario being dependent on a communal change in behavior.
Harkness said in his report that 80% of COVID-19 cases may be mild and 20% may be critical enough to put patients in intensive care units.
The report also said critical patients who do not have access to the proper care or equipment can cause death rates to double.
“The public health orders significantly flatten the curve in terms of the demand for ICU units needed,” Harkness said.
City staff research estimates 2,000 potential deaths in the coming 12 weeks, according to Harkness’ report.
“We will be seeing the maximum strain starting to hit the health care system and a maximum number of those who are sick and infected at their sickest,” Harkness said. “That means all of the capabilities and capacities that we are putting in place need to be able to be up and running at full scale.”
San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo praised the people working to bring the pandemic to an end, but other council members are also concerned about the community’s quality of life.
“I’m just concerned that there’s not enough child care slots available for essential workers across the city and I know that it’s an immense need,” Councilmember Sylvia Arenas said.
Arenas said that if there is no adequate care for children, they might end up being looked after by someone who is not qualified.
Officials are currently defining essential workers as police officers, firefighters or any other city employee, according to city staff. However, they clarified the current list is subject to change.
Angel Rios, operations section coordinator in the Emergency Operations Center, said they are working on putting together resources needed for essential workers.
“The county has actually entered into a contract with a service provider to provide child care for county employees – it is the county employees specifically,” Rios said.
