In a live television speech that aired before 6 a.m. Moscow time Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed Russia announcing the start of a “special military operation” in Ukraine.
Alexandra Smirnova, an SJSU alumna from Russia who came to the United States in 2009, returned home earlier this year, and said people in her home country did anticipate a military invasion in Ukraine.
“Most people thought the whole troop build-up was just a bluff, and it would be crazy to actually invade Ukraine,” said Smirnova. “It came as a shock for everyone I know [in Russia].”
Pro-Russia rebel leaders of Donbass in the eastern part of Ukraine claimed on Feb.17 they were attacked by Ukrainian forces with artillery fire according to a Feb. 17 CNBC article.
Sabrina Pinnell, SJSU political science lecturer specializing in post-Soviet politics, said this was a false flag attack by Putin to justify Ukraine’s invasion as a defensive action from Russia.
“This is where we get to the term ‘pretext,’ ” Pinnell said. “Russia would have invaded before now if it thought it could make the argument that Ukrainians are killing Russians.”
As of Saturday, Russia had established attack lines into three cities according to the New York Times Maps tracking the invasion: Kyiv in the north, Kharkiv in the northeast and Kherson in the south of Ukraine.
“There's a lot of really strong resistance from the Ukrainian forces at this point,” Pinnell said. “So it's not going to be an automatic rollover.”
On Sunday, Putin ordered Russia’s deterrent forces, including nuclear arms, to be placed on high alert.
“Whoever tries to hinder us, or threaten our country or our people, should know that Russia’s response will be immediate and will lead you to consequences that you have never faced in your history,” Putin said in the Thursday announcement.
Ukrainian officials announced after a phone call between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko that a meeting will be held today between a Russian and an Ukrainian delegation in north Chernobyl, next to the border of Belarus.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in a Sunday briefing in Kyiv that Putin’s order to place nuclear arms on high alert just before the meeting was a strategy to pressure the Ukrainian delegation.
"But we will not give in to this pressure,” Kuleba said. “[Putin’s decision] to put on high alert his nuclear weapons is a direct threat to us. I have a very simple message: it will be a catastrophe for the world, but it will not break us down."
President Zelenskyy accused Russia of striking civilians in Ukraine on Sunday.
“They lied when they said they would not target the civilian population,” Zelenskyy said. “Since the first hours of the invasion, Russian troops have been hitting civilian infrastructure.”
An SJSU student from Ukraine, who wished to remain anonymous for privacy concerns, said it was stressful to call her family in Ukraine every couple of hours to make sure they’re safe and alive. Her family, from Kyiv, fled the capital to avoid bombing, she said in an email.
Ukraine’s health minister Viktor Liashko said in a statement posted on Facebook Saturday that 198 Ukrainians had been killed , with more than 1,000 wounded. Three children have died since the beginning of the invasion.
The White House released a statement the same day stating the U.S. and its allies are backing the expulsion of certain Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a high-security network connecting thousands of financial institutions.
Political science lecturer Sabrina Pinnell said Russia was prepared for this decision, and has been working on other financial transaction systems.
“If we were back in 2014 when they did this with Crimea, it would have been so much more effective,” she said.
Pinnell said that unless China joins economic sanctions against Russia, the sanctions imposed by NATO will not be as effective.
“If China turns on Russia, that's what they will be worried about, because it is much easier to get into Russia from China,” Pinnell said. “Most of Russia's energy is going to China, [if China decides to reply], then it's really going to start hurting.”
Pinnell said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization , a military intergovernmental alliance between European countries, Canada and the U.S., is prioritizing the protection of its member states at the Russian border.
She said this is the reason NATO is sending arms but not troops to Ukraine.
President Zelenskyy said he sees the decision not to send troops as an abandonment.
“Who is ready to fight alongside us? I don’t see anyone,” said Zelenskyy in a late Thursday briefing in Kyiv.
Vova Zhukov, Ukrainian aerospace engineering junior at SJSU said that besides Ukraine, no other countries expected Ukranians to resist Russian troops.
“America say to [the] UK [Ukraine] will fall in three days, they were sured that Ukraine will not stand, but . . . in Ukraine we know what we can do [it],” Zhukov said.
President Zelenskyy, a former actor and comedian, has been welcomed as a leader by Ukrainians including Zhukov and the anonymous Ukrainian student, who said they perceive differently than other world leaders.
“We have this joke [in Ukraine] … Usually, presidents go from hero to clown in other countries, but in Ukraine, looks like it's otherwise,” Zhukov said.
Pinnell said because threats of Russian attacks are alleged at the border of NATO member states, the organization would have enough justification to go into Western Ukraine. However, Pinnell believes “every one of those decisions is going to be exploited by Russia.”
“They will say that . . . this was our plan all along, to split Ukraine in half and take the western half,” Pinnell said. “Anything we do with regards to Ukraine could be spun by Russia, a different way, so we have to think about it.”
Unlike Putin’s decision to annex Crimea in 2014, Smirnova said the current invasion of Ukraine is not supported by anyone she knows in Russia.
Thousands of people in cities across Russia protested the invasion of Ukraine. On Sunday, the OVD-Info monitor, an independent Russian human rights organization combating political persecution, counted the arrests of more than 2,000 anti-war protesters.
“It is a huge risk to hit [Russia’s] streets,” Pinnell said.
Zhukov said he was waiting for more resistance from the Russian public. He said if they’re “really against the war” he believes it’s time for Russian citizens to seize control of Putin’s government.
Smirnova said similar to other Russians, she is still conflicted about what to do despite her honest support for Ukrainians.
“If you say you want to support Ukrainian troops … you’re kind of wishing death to regular [Russian] soldiers that are not even choosing to be there,” Smirnova said.
Smirnova said she has an 18-year-old brother who is studying in Russia. For the moment, he doesn’t have to join the army, but she’s scared laws could change and require her brother to fight in Ukraine.
“What if they say ‘18-year-old guys go now to Ukraine,’ ” she said.
Pinnell said even if there may be internal divisions about Putin’s decision, no clear, viable political opposition to Putin exists inside Russia.
“The ability for other factions in the government to rise up, and question Putin, and hope to survive politically is next to nil,” Pinnell said.
