Media pundits and news anchors in the weeks leading up to midterms elections on Nov. 8 forecasted decisive and overwhelming Republican wins throughout several key races for the House of Representatives and Senate to no avail.
Despite insistence that a Republican takeover would overwhelm the incumbent president and Democratic party, no Republican ‘Red Wave’ materialized.
Marc Thiessen, a former speechwriter for George W. Bush, said during a Fox News election night panel that, “This is an absolute disaster for the Republican Party.”
James Brent, director of the masters of public administration program and political science professor, said the midterm results we are seeing is because of an elusive young voter block and biased preliminary polls.
“I mean, this was a huge victory for the Democrats,” Brent said in a Zoom call. “I mean, they lost the house. I mean, it’s ‘Oh they lost the house.’ But no, this was a huge win . . . for the Democrats. They have every right to feel great.”
He also said abortion rights and gay rights are topics that younger voters, specifically college students, care about and that they are ready to vote to protect those.
“Well, I don't think there's much doubt that most of what the modern Republican Party stands for, it's not what most younger voters believe in,” Brent said.
The final race securing Senate control for the Democrats came late Saturday by Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in her race against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been endorsed by former President Donald Trump, according to a Monday Reuters article.
Early estimates from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University cited midterm turnout at a 30-year high for 18-29 year olds, according to a Thursday NPR article.
“It really is the youngest voters that are the hardest to get a hold of and so they were probably the ones who are least well represented [in polls],” Brent said. “So on election day, when they turned out pretty well, that was the margin that turned the tide.”
There is no decisive win for Republicans as forecasted but the race for control of the House by way of 218 seat majority has almost been decided.
Republicans have 217 seats of the 218 needed for a majority with Democrats holding 206 seats. With 12 seats still undecided and votes still being tallied, Republicans most likely will have a majority in the House, according to a Monday AP News article.
Further misunderstanding of the Red Wave that didn’t happen might have come from misunderstanding and misreporting preliminary polls.
Brent said the “profession of polling” is evolving and undergoing some “existential angst” amongst other reasons why the media was wrong.
“You basically have a lot of Republican-leaning polls that were being issued and a lot of the mainstream media were simply picking up on that saying, ‘Hey, look, there's this other poll that says Republicans are going to win,” Brent said.
Though the Democrats and Biden received a victory that no one saw coming, the next two years of his presidency will be a continuing uphill battle as his previously held house majority will likely go to the Republicans while the Senate has a razor-thin split in the Democrats’ favor.
