On Tuesday morning, Polish officials reported that a Russian-made missile fell in the eastern part of the country, near its border with Ukraine, killing two people and targeting the readiness of combat units in the country, according to a Tuesday CNN article.
Although the provenance of the projectile, defined by Polish authorities as an isolated incident, is still not clear, it took place after Russia launched its biggest missile attacks on Ukraine cities in more than a month, according to the CNN article.
Three U.S. officials told AP News in its Tuesday evening article that preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one, amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure that day.
Sabrina Pinnell, San Jose State political science senior lecturer, said the fact that the missile landed in Poland means that there will eventually need to be a response from the U.S. government.
“I am sure that Poland is probably waiting for that and maybe, talking to the U.S. government right now,” Pinnell said. “But think about the implications of that, this may, in fact, be a direct attack on Poland, or more likely, it could be an accident.”
The Polish government said it was investigating and raising its level of military preparedness. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden pledged support for Poland’s investigation, according to the AP News article.
The Russian Defense Ministry declared the missile had nothing to do with Russian weapons and denied the Russian presence behind any attack near the Ukrainian-Polish border, according to the Tuesday AP News article.
“It is quite possible at some point that Russia will be backed into a corner and say, ‘This was a mistake,’” Pinnell said. “They are probably going to go with the backup, saying it was not a direct attack.”
Biden and the other NATO leaders are contributing to the investigation of the missile’s origin, according to the CNN article.
Pinnell said however, the event may have important consequences in the European Union and Ukraine’s potential membership.
“This is not just about NATO, this is also about the EU, and the EU has been taking a much harder line with Russia,” Pinnell said. “The European Union may put Ukraine on track to enter the EU as a full fledged member.”
On June 22, after the development of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the European Union granted candidate membership status to Ukraine, according to a June 23 PBS article.
However, Ukraine's entrance into the EU is still on standby.
“For a long time, they said, ‘We're not going to do that because we don't want to make Russia angry,’ ” Pinnell said. “Now, if actual EU members are being attacked directly, then they may say ‘Okay, now you've done it, we are going to, sadly, speed up the process of letting Ukraine in.’ ”
Although the EU supported Ukraine during the conflict, Russia still has a strong economical influence on many countries of the EU.
In 2021, the European Union imported 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia, accounting for around 45% of EU gas imports and close to 40% of its total gas consumption, according to a March 3 International Energy Agency news release.
Pinnell said even if it has not reached that point yet, there is a lot of pressure behind the scenes to establish a conversation to solve the conflict.
“From the U.S. given the fact that we're about to have a change in the Congress, you know, even the Democratic leadership is pushing on this,” Pinnell said. “There's pressure from the EU, there is a tremendous pressure for everybody to sit down and talk.”
